one line, infinite possibilities. >>> when our u.s. dumb mates were attacked in libya, the romney campaign says our knee-jerk response showed an extraordinary lack of presidential character. those remarks were the worst possible reaction to what happened. if this is how he handles the world now, just think how mitt romney would do as president. >>> how bad are these numbers really for the president? how good are they really for mitt romney? joining me now, the man who surely knows all the answers, nate silver, the numbers guy behind the 538 blog and the author of "the signal and the noise." welcome back, nate. your last confident prediction was obama's going to walk this. what happened? >> well -- >> looks like mitt romney's surging ahead. pew poll, 49% to 45%. are you correcting your prediction? >> we always update our numbers in real time and what happened was denver, where i think you had the president behaving as though he had a 14 point lead and not a four point lead and that tends to -- you kind of create your own nightmare somet